Indicator

Risk of premature death between 30-70 years

Definition

Probability of dying between the exact ages 30 and 70 years from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, or chronic respiratory diseases. Deaths from these four causes will be based on the following ICD-10 codes:

• I00-I99,
• C00-C97,
• E10-E14,
• J30-J98.

Calculation

Age-specific death rates for the combined four cause categories (typically in terms of 5-year age groups30-34, 65-69). A life table method allows calculation of the risk of death between exact ages30 and70 from any of these causes, in the absence of other causes of death.

The ICD codes to be included in the calculation are:

• cardiovascular disease: I00-I99,
• Cancer: C00-C97,
• Diabetes: E10-E14,
• Chronic respiratory diseases: J30-J98.

To calculate age-specific mortality rate for each 5-year age group and country, for each 5-year age range between 30 and 70:

(_5^*)M_x=(Total deaths from four major NCD causes between exact age x and exact age x+5 )/(Total population between exact age x and exact age x+5)

Then translate the 5-year death rate to the probability of death in each 5-year age range:
(_5^*)q_x=(_5^*)M_x*5/(1+ (_5^*)M_x*2.5 )

The probability of death from age 30 to 70 years, independent of other causes of death can be calculated as:
(_40^*)q_30=1- ∏_(x=30)^65〖(1-(_5^*)q_x 〗)

Reference

WHO NCD Country Profiles (2018)

Risk of premature death between 30-70 years by Gender

Raw data